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Romney Wins Washington. Three Days Till Super Tuesday.

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AP has called the Washington State Caucus for Mitt Romney with about 36% of the vote. The anti-Romney vote was split mostly between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum who each claimed about 25% of the vote.

The vote was marred by a mishap in Kennewick, Washington were about 1,500 voters were turned away for lack of sufficient space.

This coming week is "Super Tuesday" with Primaries or Caucuses in 10 states.

  • Only Romney & Paul are on the ballot in Virginia and Massachusetts, so Romney is favored to win there as well as Vermont since it is so near Massachusetts and Idaho which is 27% Mormon, second only to Utah’s 72%. (See map after the jump.)
  • Paul’s best chances are in Alaska and North Dakota‘s caucuses.
  • Gingrich will likely pick up his home state of Georgia.
  • Santorum is strongest in the Midwest: Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.
 Other Key Dates

  • PBS/NPR Debate, Monday, March 19 at 9pm ET, Portland, OR
  • Republican National Convention, August 27-30, Tampa, FL
  • Democratic National Convention, September 3-6, Charlotte, NC
  • Presidential Debate, Wednesday, October 3, Univ. of Denver, Denver, CO
  • Vice-Presidential Debate, Thursday, October 11 at Centre College, Danville, KY
  • Presidential Debate, Tuesday, October 16, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
  • Presidential Debate, Monday, October 22 at Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL
  • General Election, Tuesday, November 3

Color Key
Santorum: Dark green
Romney: Orange
Gingrich: Purple
Paul: Gold
Perry: Dark blue
Not yet voted: Grey

States Won

Romney
NH FL
NV ME
AZ MI
WY WA		 Santorum
IA CO
MN MO		 Gingrich
SC

Next Contests
Mar  6: Super Tuesday  AK GA ID MA ND OH OK TN VT VA
Mar 10: KS VI GU
Mar 13: AL AS HI MS
Mar 17: MO
Mar 18: PR
Mar 20: IL
Mar 24: LA
Apr  3: MD DC WI  
Apr 24: CT DE NY PA RI
May  8: IN NC WV
May 15: NE OR
May 22: AR KY
May 29: TX confirmed
Jun  5: CA MT NJ NM SD
Jun 26: UT

The latest odds according to Intrade follow the jump.
Probability of winning primaries according to gamblers on intrade as of Monday, March 5

State AK GA ID MA ND OK OH TN VT VA
Delegates 27 76 32 41 28 66 43 58 17 50
Romney 75-80% 2-4% 94-96% 99%+ 70-73% 2-9% 80-82% 28-35% – 97-99%
Santorum 4-10% 0-1% – X 12-17% 87-90% 17-19% 58-60% 30-50% X
Gingrich 0-2% 97-98% – X 0-3% 0-8% – 4-13% – X
Paul 16-19% – 0-1% – 16-22% – – – 35-70% 0-3%


Leading Religion by County, 2000

  • Dots indicate leading religion actually has a majority.
  • Red: Baptist
  • Blue: Catholic
  • Yellow: Christian
  • Beige: LDS/Mormon
  • Pink: Mennonite/Amish
  • Green: Methodist
  • Cyan: Reformed
  • Grey: Other



Mormon Population Density by State, 1990

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