Recapping Yesterday’s Primaries

Yesterday, House and Senate primaries were held in Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin. First, for the I-cannot-believe-she-won-AGAIN race: Michele Bachmann with 80% of the vote. Thanks, I feel better for sharing the insanity.

In Connecticut, there were no surprises. Chris Murphy won over Susan Bysiewicz 67.5% – 32.5% to capture the Democratic nomination. He will face, and easily win against, Linda “WWF” McMahon, who captured 72% of the vote over Chris Shays on the Republican side. This is currently Joe “Turncoat” Lieberman's seat. It will be gratifying when this seat returns to its Democratic place in the Senate in January. And yes, I'm sure Murphy wins. There were no surprises in the House primaries, with most races being uncontested. 

In Minnesota, incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar captured 90% of the primary vote, and will be challenged by, and will win against, Kurt Bills. There were some interesting state house outcomes. with the longest-serving Republican being tossed out by a teabag challenger. But in the national House races, only one surprise. Rick Nolan edged out Tarryl Clark to take on freshman teabagger Chip Cravaack, who is legitimately vulnerable.

On to Wisconsin. Tommy Thompson managed to win the Republican Senate primary against three tea bag challengers. This sets up a heated race between the former governor and Tammy Baldwin, who ran uncontested. This is the seat Herb Kohl is retiring from, and yes, Herb is from the family that owns the chain Kohl's. The polls in the head-to-head have been close, with Thompson slightly ahead. Thompson was a popular governor, and former Federal official. For a Republican, his health care stance is relatively decent, and he did good work in Wisconsin on health matters. Tammy Baldwin is a long-term pol, having held local and state positions before being the first woman from Wisconsin elected to Congress. She was also the first openly-gay non-incumbent ever elected to Congress. She is serving her 7th term. In her first two races, she captured 53% and 55% of the vote, and has consistently won with more than 60% ever since. She voted against invading Iraq. I'm looking forward to the next sets of polls, because it is possible that teabaggers will either come in as “undecided” or “other”, which may propel Baldwin to the lead. The Wisconsin House races were uneventful, and mostly uncontested.

And finally, we have Florida, Florida, Florida. (I still miss you Tim Russert.) Betcha $10,000 that Mittens wished he would have waited a couple days to announce Paul Ryan. John Mica, a 10-term Republican redistricted to run against freshman teabagger Sandy Adams, won with 61% of the vote. Cliff Stearns has apparently lost to veterinarian Ted Yoho, but Stearns has refused to concede, and the vote has not been certified as of this writing. It's close: under 800 votes. Stearns can be blamed, in part, with the rest of the blame resting on Karen Handel, with the implosion of the Susan G. Komen foundation. Karen Handel was the one who got the organization to cut Planned Parenthood funding because of an “on-going Congressional investigation.” Stearns WAS the “Congressional investigation.” Good riddance.

In the Florida 9th, Alan Grayson will be back on the ballot, running against Todd Long, who won over John Quiñones and others on the Republican side. This puts Grayson in a stronger position. 

Connie Mack IV will be challenging Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Every time I think of baby Mack, I am reminded of the 1992 Eddie Murphy movie The Distinguished Gentleman. Baby Mack is a mere shadow of former Connie Macks. This one is married to Mary Bono Mack, Sonny Bono's widow, and holder of her own Congressional seat. The two of them like to spend time together more than they like to go to work. Connie Mack IV has the 7th worst record for missed votes.  Mack claimed that Nelson missed 56% of the votes, but it turns out that number was from a long time ago, and recently Nelson missed one vote. Total. Nelson is on track to re-election not just because Baby Mack doesn't show up, and generally voters want their elected representatives to go to work, but also because Nelson is very, VERY pro-Medicare, and Ryan on the ticket makes Medicare all they're going to talk about in Florida, with a side order of Social Security.

Don't understate the importance of the Ryan pick in the Florida primaries: on the front page of every major paper in Florida on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday were headlines reminding Floridians about Ryan and Medicare and NOT the primary elections. 


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Updated Republican Primary Results

  • Maine belatedly completed its vote count. Romney still carries the state.
  • Santorum continues to lead in National polls.
  • Romney has pulled close to even in his home state of Michigan.
  • Intrade gives Santorum only a 35% chance of winning Michigan while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 49% chance.
  • Debate tomorrow in Mesa, Arizona.

Other Key Dates

  • PBS/NPR Debate, Monday, March 19 at 9pm ET, Portland, OR
  • Republican National Convention, August 27-30, Tampa, FL
  • Democratic National Convention, September 3-6, Charlotte, NC
  • 1st Presidential Debate, Wednesday, October 3, Univ. of Denver, Denver, CO
  • Vice-Presidential Debate, Thursday, October 11 at Centre College, Danville, KY
  • 2nd Presidential Debate, Tuesday, October 16, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
  • 3rd Presidential Debate, Monday, October 22 at Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL
  • General Election, Tuesday, November 3

Santorum: Dark green
Romney: Orange
Gingrich: Purple
Paul: Gold
Perry: Dark blue
Not yet voted: Grey

States Won
Santorum: IA CO MN MO
Romney: NH FL NV ME
Gingrich: SC

Next Contests
Feb 28: AZ MI
Mar  3: WA
Mar  6: Super Tuesday
Mar 10: WY KS VI GU
Mar 13: AL AS HI MS
Mar 17: MO
Mar 18: PR
Mar 20: IL
Mar 24: LA
Apr  3: MD DC WI
Apr 24: CT DE NY PA RI
May  8: IN NC WV
May 15: NE OR
May 22: AR KY
May 29: TX estimated
Jun  5: CA MT NJ NM SD
Jun 26: UT

Rick Santorum Crushes Romney In Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) turned the Republican primary upside-down yesterday winning all three contests yesterday over the “frontrunner” Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).

According to FiveThirtyEight blog’s Nate Silver:

In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county – and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Missouri is a less important result since its beauty contest primary did not count for delegate selection and since turnout was understandably low there. But Mr. Romney lost all 114 counties in Missouri – and the state as a whole by 30 points, far more than polls projected.

Then there was Colorado, a state that has reasonably similar demographics to Nevada, which Mr. Romney carried easily on Saturday. Colorado has somewhat fewer Mormon voters than Nevada, which hurts Mr. Romney – but it has somewhat more wealthy ones, which favors him. The betting market Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening. But he lost the state by 5 points to Mr. Santorum.

Mitt Romney will have some time to contemplate this turn of events. The next contests are the Arizona and Michigan primaries on Tuesday, February 28 followed by the Washington State and Maine caucuses on Saturday, March 3, and Super Tuesday, March 6 with voting in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.

The next debates currently scheduled will be held by CNN on February 22 at 8pm in Mesa, Arizona and a super Tuesday debate March 1 at 8pm in Atlanta, Georgia.  

States Won

  • Santorum: IA, CO, MN, MO
  • Romney: NH, FL, NV
  • Gingrich: SC
  • Paul: none