Romney wins Wyoming caucus. Washington votes this Shabbos.

  • TPM: “Last night, after weeks of voting, the Wyoming caucuses drew to a close. Mitt Romney won them with 39% of the vote to Rick Santorum's 33%. Ron Paul won 20% and Newt Gingrich 8%. In terms of delegate allocation, CNN estimates that Romney will likely take 10, Santorum 9, Paul 6 and Gingrich 1.”
    See Wyoming Capital Journal for the details the next steps of delegate selection.
    Over 10% of Wyomans are Mormon. Only Idaho and Utah have higher percentages. Mormons have historically favored Mitt Romney who is a Mormon elder. (See map after the jump.)
  • Republican's in the State of Washington will hold their caucus this coming Shabbat. The oddmakers give Romney a slight advantage over Santorum.
  • Next week is "Super Tuesday" with Primaries or Caucuses in 10 states.
    • Only Romney & Paul are on the ballot in Virginia and Massachusetts, so Romney is favored to win there as well as Vermont since it is so near Massachusetts and Idaho which is 27% Mormon, second only to Utah’s 72%. (See map after the jump.)
    • Paul’s best chances are in Alaska and North Dakota‘s caucuses.
    • Gingrich will likely pick up his home state of Georgia.
    • Santorum is strongest in the Midwest: Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

    The latest odds according to Intrade follow the jump.

 Other Key Dates

  • PBS/NPR Debate, Monday, March 19 at 9pm ET, Portland, OR
  • Republican National Convention, August 27-30, Tampa, FL
  • Democratic National Convention, September 3-6, Charlotte, NC
  • 1st Presidential Debate, Wednesday, October 3, Univ. of Denver, Denver, CO
  • Vice-Presidential Debate, Thursday, October 11 at Centre College, Danville, KY
  • 2nd Presidential Debate, Tuesday, October 16, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
  • 3rd Presidential Debate, Monday, October 22 at Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL
  • General Election, Tuesday, November 3

Color Key
Santorum: Dark green
Romney: Orange
Gingrich: Purple
Paul: Gold
Perry: Dark blue
Not yet voted: Grey  


States Won
Romney: NH FL NV ME AZ MI WY
Santorum: IA CO MN MO
Gingrich: SC  


 
Next Contests
Mar  3: WA
Mar  6: Super Tuesday  AK GA ID MA ND OH OK TN VT VA
Mar 10: KS VI GU
Mar 13: AL AS HI MS
Mar 17: MO
Mar 18: PR
Mar 20: IL
Mar 24: LA
Apr  3: MD DC WI  
Apr 24: CT DE NY PA RI
May  8: IN NC WV
May 15: NE OR
May 22: AR KY
May 29: TX confirmed
Jun  5: CA MT NJ NM SD Jun 26: UT
Probability of winning primaries according to gamblers on intrade as of Thursday, March 1

State WA AK GA ID MA ND OK OH TN VT VA
Delegates 43 27 76 32 41 28 66 43 58 17 50
Romney 57-62% 64-73% 2-18% 93-95% 98%+ 38-50% 3-11% 57-59% 15-17% 91-96% 95-98%
Santorum 30-39% 18-25% 4-10% 1-3% X 3-63% 86-90% 41-44% 72-85% 0-9% X
Gingrich 0-1% 1-6% 81-88% X 1-20% 10-24% 0-1% 0-14% 0-9% X
Paul 3-4% 12-24% 0-7% 11-26% 0-4% 0-9% 1-7% 1%-6%


Leading Religion by County, 2000

  • Dots indicate leading religion actually has a majority.
  • Red: Baptist
  • Blue: Catholic
  • Yellow: Christian
  • Beige: LDS/Mormon
  • Pink: Mennonite/Amish
  • Green: Methodist
  • Cyan: Reformed
  • Grey: Other



Mormon Population Density by State, 1990

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  1. Publisher says

    New York Times reports that the new Texas primary date is official.

    A federal three-judge panel in San Antonio ruled Thursday that the state’s long-delayed primary election would be held on May 29, with a runoff on July 31. The judges had twice pushed back the primary because of a redistricting dispute. Black and Hispanic groups sued the state over the electoral maps drawn by the Republican-controlled Legislature, saying the maps discriminated against minorities. With the new May 29 date, Texas will hold one of the last primaries in the country, weakening its ability to influence the Republican presidential race.

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