Romney Compaign: Why Poll When You Have Internet Gamblers?

Percentage chance of winning the Feb. 28, 2012 Michigan Republican primary according to gamblers at Intrade.

According Gary Wolfram at the Romney Campaign, the internet gambling site Intrade can give you a better feeling for the Michigan primary than polls of actual Michigan Republican voters. Since “InTrade’s value as a prediction engine vs. scientific polling is debatable“, let’s look at both.

Romney was initially the heavy favorite to carry his “home state” of Michigan, but now betters at Intrade are not so sure. They now consider the state to be a toss-up.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver has studied the polling data for Michigan and gives Santorum at 76% chance of winning. Over the last two weeks, all polls have shown Senator Santorum to be in the lead.

Either way Romney has his work cut out for him in Michigan.

Poll Date Sample Size Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
Mitchell Feb. 14 455 34% 25% 11% 5%
Inside Michigan Politics Feb. 13-14 800 43% 33% 8% 11%
Rasmussen Feb. 13 750 35% 32% 13% 11%
Glengariff Group Feb. 11-13 500 34% 30% 9% 12%
American Research Group Feb. 11-12 600 33% 27% 12% 21%
PPP Feb. 10-12 404 39% 24% 12% 11%
MIRS Feb. 2 638 15% 31% 15% 16%
Rasmussen Feb. 1 750 17% 38% 14% 23%


Key — States Won
Santorum: IA CO MN MO
Romney: NH FL NV ME
Gingrich: SC
Paul: none
<!– Unknown: –>

Next Contests
Feb 18: ME (in part)
Feb 28: AZ MI
Mar  3: WA
Mar  6: Super Tuesday
AK GA ID MA ND OH OK TN VT VA
Mar 10: WY KS VI GU
Mar 13: AL AS HI MS
Mar 17: MO
Mar 18: PR
Mar 20: IL
Mar 24: LA
Apr  3: MD DC WI
Apr 24: CT DE NY PA RI
May  8: IN NC WV
May 15: NE OR
May 22: AR KY
May 29: TX estimated
Jun  5: CA MT NJ NM SD
Jun 26: UT

Next Debates

  • CNN Debate, Wednesday, February 22 at 8pm in Mesa, Arizona.
  • PBS/NPR Debate, Monday, March 19 at 9pm  in Portland, Oregon.
  • First Presidential Debate, Wednesday, October 3 at the University of Denver in Denver, Colorado,
  • Vice-Presidential Debate, Thursday, October 11 at Centre College in Danville, Kentucky,
  • Second Presidential Debate, Tuesday, October 16 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, and
  • Third Presidential Debate, Monday, October 22 at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida.

Times are indicated in Eastern Time.

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